Posts in category: News

Oil Prices Slide as Weak Chinese Demand Offsets U.S. Supply Disruptions

Bitcoin (BTC) price lost some of its upside momentum ahead of the U.S. presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on Sep. 20.

The benchmark cryptocurrency wobbled between gains and losses and was up 0.14% at press time, trading for around $57,150. Its price moves appeared similar to the U.S. stock futures, indicating that risk investors have become cautious ahead of the debate.

The upcoming debate could provide important insights into how the candidates intend to handle the cryptocurrency industry.

The crypto sector’s growth has made it a critical issue, and traders and long-term investors are eager to see if Harris will outline any new policies or whether Trump will reaffirm his support for the industry. Any such policy indications could influence market sentiment.

As of Sept. 10, Polymarket polls show Donald Trump narrowly leading Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential race, with 52% of voters supporting Trump and 48% backing Harris.

That is one reason behind Bitcoin’s exhausting upside momentum on Sept. 10.

Bitcoin’ Death Cross’ is Raising Selloff Risks

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s key moving averages are closer to forming a “death cross,” a bearish pattern that appears when an asset’s 50-period moving average crosses below the 200-period moving average.

In this case, BTC’s 50-day EMA is eyeing a close below its 200-day EMA, just as the cryptocurrency trades below them. That said, the price may rally toward the EMAs—aligning with the $59,300-59,750 range—only to correct afterward to retest a mult-month descending trendline support at around $50,000.

Conversely, a breakout above the 50-200 EMA confluence could propel Bitcoin’s price toward its multi-month descending trendline resistance, targeting approximately $63,500 by September.

US CPI Impact on Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price has jumped by nearly 10% from its recent lows of around $52,570, a rally that appeared in the days leading up to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, which the Labor Department will release on Sept. 10.

BTC’s price typically rallies ahead of the U.S. inflation data, only to drop afterward for both short and long-term timeframes. For instance, the cryptocurrency declined by over 8% after the August CPI report. Similar declines have appeared throughout 2024, as shown below.

USD/JPY Moves Higher As Traders Focus On China’s Imports Data

In case USD/JPY manages to settle above the 143.50 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 144.50. A move above the 50 MA will push USD/JPY towards the resistance at 146.00 – 146.50.

EUR/USD Gains Ground As Germany’s Inflation Rate Meets Expectations

If EUR/USD settles above the 1.1050 level, it will move towards the 50 MA at 1.1070. In case EUR/USD climbs above the 50 MA, it will head towards the significant resistance level at 1.1110 – 1.1135.

AUD/USD Found Support And Attempts To Rebound

If AUD/USD manages to settle above the 0.6675 level, it will head towards the resistance at 0.6735 – 0.6750. On the support side, a move below 0.6640 will open the way to the test of the support at 0.6585 – 0.6600.

NZD/USD Gains Ground Amid Rising Demand For Commodity-Related Currencies

From the technical point of view, NZD/USD found support in the 0.6125 – 0.6140 range. A move above the 0.6150 level will push NZD/USD towards the 50 MA at 0.6208.

Dollar Index Steady; Key Economic Events

The Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering at $101.664, down slightly by 0.01%. Investor confidence data out of Europe came in worse than expected at -15.4, keeping pressure on the dollar.

Traders are now focusing on upcoming U.S. economic events, including the NFIB Small Business Index and speeches from two Federal Reserve officials.

With wholesale inventories and consumer credit data set for later, markets are watching closely for clues on the U.S. economy’s trajectory.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $101.664, down slightly by 0.01%. The price remains near its pivot point at $101.425, which is a key area to watch.

If the index holds above this level, the bullish trend could continue, with immediate resistance at $101.882, followed by $102.220 and $102.478.

However, if it dips below the pivot, support is seen at $101.139, with further levels at $100.858 and $100.528.

GBP Holds Firm as UK Labor Data Surprises Markets

The British pound is holding steady after UK labor data came in better than expected. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, and the Claimant Count change was significantly lower at 23.7K, well below the forecast of 95.5K.

However, wage growth softened slightly, with the Average Earnings Index falling to 4.0% from the expected 4.1%. Overall, the data shows a resilient labor market, offering some support to the pound.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

The GBP/USD trades at $1.30913, up 0.12% on the day, as it tests a key pivot point at $1.30913. The pair currently holds above its 200-day EMA at $1.30112, reinforcing bullish sentiment, while the 50-day EMA at $1.313 provides near-term resistance.

Euro Struggles as Investor Confidence Falls

The euro took a hit after the Sentix Investor Confidence index dropped to -15.4, below the expected -12.4, signalling weaker sentiment in the Eurozone. German CPI data also remained flat at -0.1%, reflecting ongoing inflationary challenges.

Additionally, Italy’s industrial production saw a notable decline, falling by 0.9% compared to the 0.5% growth forecasted. This combination of weak data can add pressure on the euro. Since these events have not had a very high impact, we may not see much movement in EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.10359, up by 0.03%, hovering around a critical pivot point at $1.10291. This level has shown strong support, reinforced by a triple bottom formation, suggesting buyers are stepping in. Immediate resistance lies at $1.10652, with further resistance levels at $1.10933 and $1.11356.

EUR/USD Price ChartOn the downside, watch for support at $1.10041, with additional cushions at $1.09786 and $1.09496. The 50-day EMA is above current prices at $1.10748, indicating some overhead resistance. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA at $1.10161 provides a solid support base.

Will Apple’s Tax Ruling Overshadow its New Product Launches?

Apple Inc. shares have slipped by over 1%, in pre-market trading after the company lost a crucial European Union court battle over a €13 billion tax bill in Ireland. This legal setback comes just hours after Apple’s major product launch event, where it introduced its iPhone 16, new Apple Watch, and updated AirPods. Investors are now asking: Will the excitement over new products be enough to offset concerns about Apple’s tax woes?

At 08:25 GMT, Apple Inc. is trading $218.30, down $2.61 or -1.18%. This follows a 0.04% gain the previous session.

The Tax Blow

The European Court of Justice ruled against Apple, demanding the company pay €13 billion ($14.4 billion) in back taxes to Ireland. This decision could have a significant impact on Apple’s financials, with investors worried about a potential hit to the company’s cash reserves. More concerning is the possibility that this ruling might trigger similar investigations across other jurisdictions where Apple has operations, especially within the European Union. With €13 billion at stake, the uncertainty may weigh on market sentiment.

Furthermore, this loss adds to Apple’s legal troubles in Europe. In addition to the tax case, Apple recently faced a €1.8 billion ($1.99 billion) antitrust fine, underscoring the growing regulatory pressure on tech giants from the EU. The European Commission’s broader initiatives, such as the Digital Markets Act, signal that Apple could face additional hurdles in its European operations, possibly affecting its long-term profitability in the region.

Positive Product Momentum

On the flip side, Apple’s latest product launches have sparked optimism among investors. The tech giant continues to hold a strong position in the U.S. smartphone market, commanding over 50% of total shipments. Moreover, Apple enjoys unparalleled loyalty from Gen Z consumers, with 79% of this demographic favoring iPhones over competitors. The integration of artificial intelligence in its newest iPhones might also breathe new life into its declining sales, particularly as it battles stiff competition from Chinese brands.

The excitement surrounding these innovations—larger screens for the iPhone 16 Pro and new AI features—has tempered concerns over the company’s legal challenges. While the stock’s modest post-event uptick of 0.04% might seem underwhelming, it’s worth noting that Apple’s stock usually dips after product announcements. This time, the reversal could be a positive signal.

Impact on Broader Markets

However, the potential for strong product sales in the weeks ahead could offset these concerns. If Apple’s new iPhones and other products gain traction, we could see a reversal of early losses, supporting a broader market recovery. Traders should monitor how sales figures and consumer demand evolve, as a rebound in Apple shares could help lift the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq.

Conclusion

The EU tax ruling is undeniably a near-term negative for Apple, casting uncertainty over its financials and global tax strategy. Yet, the positive buzz surrounding its new product launches, particularly the iPhone 16 and its AI features, could provide enough momentum to stabilize the stock. As regulatory concerns battle against product optimism, traders should closely watch for any shifts in sentiment. If product sales deliver, the downside from the tax news may be short-lived.

Market Overview

During Monday’s Asian session, Gold (XAU/USD) saw an uptick, trading around $2,486 and reaching an intra-day high of $2,500. The increase followed unimpressive U.S. employment data, sparking concerns about the strength of the economy.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increase of 142,000 for August, falling short of the 160,000 forecast.

Additionally, unemployment dipped to 4.2% from 4.3%, with wage inflation rising to 3.8%. This has lowered expectations for a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Stronger Dollar Caps Gold’s Gains

Despite the weak job numbers, the U.S. Dollar (USD) gained strength due to a modest recovery in U.S. Treasury yields.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, down from earlier expectations of a 50 basis point cut.

As the U.S. Dollar firmed, gold’s upward movement was limited, with further gains capped by higher Treasury yields.

Geopolitical Concerns Push Safe-Haven Demand

Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset. Beyond tensions in the Middle East, China’s gold holdings remained steady at 72.8 million fine troy ounces, according to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

Meanwhile, China’s inflation data showed consumer prices rising for the seventh consecutive month, though producer price deflation persisted.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is trading at $2,486.75, testing key resistance at $2,500. A break above this level could target $2,511, while support lies at $2,471.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,471.90, with deeper support levels at $2,451.91 and $2,432.19. The 50-day EMA sits at $2,503.33, reinforcing resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $2,493.61 suggests some underlying strength.

A break above $2,500 could signal a bullish trend, but failure to do so keeps the bearish outlook intact. Watch these levels for potential moves.

Market Overview

The Eurozone’s final employment change held steady at 0.2%, in line with expectations, while the revised GDP growth also met forecasts at 0.2%. This limited economic growth has kept the EUR/USD pair pressured around $1.1060.

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index is hovering near 101.39, as U.S. data surprised with weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls at 142K (vs. forecast of 164K), though the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. U.S. average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, surpassing expectations, signaling potential inflationary pressures.

Events Ahead

In the upcoming sessions, EUR/USD will be closely watching the Sentix Investor Confidence report, which is forecasted to come in at -12.4, slightly better than the previous -13.9.

For the dollar, the USD Final Wholesale Inventories data and Consumer Credit figures at $12.3B could offer further insight into U.S. economic resilience.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

A break above these levels could confirm upward momentum, especially as the index aims for the 200-day EMA at $101.637. On the downside, immediate support rests at $100.892.

If the Dollar Index falls below the pivot point, we could see sharper selling pressure. For now, staying bullish above $101.157 seems prudent, as the market continues to trend higher.

US 10-year Bond Yields

This declining yield suggests lower expectations for future interest rate hikes, which could weaken the US dollar. A falling yield often signals investors shifting toward safer assets like bonds, reducing the appeal of the dollar.

However, if yields break higher, the dollar could regain strength due to expectations of tighter monetary policy.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

China’s Sluggish Inflation Data Sparks Deflation Concerns

China’s economic challenges are becoming harder to ignore, with the latest data on consumer and producer prices raising serious concerns. Despite efforts to stimulate demand, the country is grappling with stubborn deflationary pressures, declining producer prices, and tepid consumer demand. Here are the key warning signs that point to a deeper problem in the world’s second-largest economy.

Weak CPI Growth Signals Low Demand

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was also lackluster, rising only 0.3% year-on-year. This suggests that underlying inflationary pressures remain absent, further highlighting weak domestic consumption. Even as food prices surged, especially pork and vegetables, broader demand in non-food categories showed minimal growth.

PPI Decline Highlights Overcapacity

Persistent declines in the PPI indicate that businesses are struggling to maintain pricing power, which could lead to lower corporate earnings, reduced investment, and further pressure on the labor market. This deflationary cycle is reminiscent of Japan’s “lost decades,” where deflation and stagnation paralyzed the economy for years.

Deflation Fears Are Growing

Economists have raised concerns that China is at risk of entering a prolonged deflationary period, similar to Japan’s experience in the late 20th century. According to the South China Morning Post, former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned that China must act swiftly to avoid this fate. He noted that deflation, once entrenched, can be extremely difficult to reverse, as seen in Japan, where wage stagnation and falling prices created a vicious cycle of weak demand and slow growth.

Former People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang echoed these concerns, also reported by South China Morning Post. He urged Beijing to focus on combating deflationary pressures with active fiscal and monetary policies. Yi emphasized the need to stimulate domestic demand, stabilize the real estate market, and address local government debt.

Stimulus May Be Too Little, Too Late

While Beijing has implemented a series of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and fiscal spending, the effects have been limited so far. The government’s shift toward consumption-led policies has yet to yield significant results, and many economists believe that current policies remain too focused on the supply side, failing to adequately address the demand shortfall.

Looking ahead, China’s economic prospects appear dim unless stronger action is taken to address these underlying issues. Without decisive intervention, the country risks sliding further into a deflationary trap that could stifle growth for years to come.

XRP Revisits $0.53as the Crypto Market Stabilizes

On Sunday, September 8, XRP advanced by 0.88%, following a 0.77% gain on Saturday, closing at $0.5297. XRP underperformed compared with the broader crypto market, which rose by 1.35% to a total market cap of $1.904 trillion.

US Politics and the XRP Community

US politics was a talking point throughout the weekend after Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen endorsed Kamala Harris for president.

On Sunday, September 8, Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett shared a letter from Senator Chuck Schumer, stating,

“Senator Schumer sent a letter to his Senate colleagues where he mentioned priorities for passing bipartisan legislation in the remaining months of Congress. Cryptocurrency legislation was not mentioned, but artificial intelligence was.”

The lack of support for the US digital asset space raised concerns, as a Kamala Harris victory could leave the industry vulnerable to SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s regulation

Pro-crypto lawyer James ‘MetaLawMan’ Murphy commented on Terret’s post on X (formerly Twitter), saying,

“In a surprise to absolutely no one, it turns out Senator Schumer is not interested in passing any crypto legislation this year (or any year?). Ignore what they say, Watch what they do. We won’t get fooled again.”

Senator Schumer’s letter comes at a pivotal time for the US digital asset space, with CryptoLaw US founder John E. Deaton battling Senator Elizabeth Warren for Massachusetts.

XRP Price Trends Amid SEC Appeal Speculation

While the US Presidential Election will remain a focal point, uncertainty about SEC plans to appeal against rulings in the Ripple case remains an XRP headwind.

Last week, pro-crypto lawyer Fred Rispoli raised the chances of an SEC appeal, saying,

“IMO 60/40 in favor of appeal.”

Price trends will likely depend on an SEC appeal against rulings in the Ripple case. If the SEC appeals, XRP may drop below $0.40. Conversely, XRP could target $1.00 if the SEC does not file an appeal notice, mirroring the market’s response to the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.

XRP Price Action

Daily Chart

XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bearish price trends.

A breakout from the 200-day EMA could signal a move toward the 50-day EMA and the $0.5739 resistance level. Furthermore, a break above the $0.5739 resistance level could bring $0.60 into play.

SEC activity, SEC vs. crypto case-related updates require consideration.

Conversely, a drop below the $0.50 level could signal a fall toward the top trend line.

With a 14-day RSI reading of 40.20, XRP may drop to $0.50 before entering oversold territory.