Pound Sterling Latest: GBP/USD Attempts Come Back Post-FOMC Sell-off

Post FOMC Rebound on the Cards for GBP/USD?

The daily GBP/USD chart reveals an attempt to lift off the stern zone of support found at the 200-day simple moving average and the 1.2585 level that help up prices for large parts of early 2024 when prices exhibited a range-bound preference.

Since spiking above the prior range, not for the first time either, GBP/USD heads back into familiar territory as the pair looks to recover from the sharp decline. 1.2736 is the next level of resistance should bulls take over from here. Sterling stands to benefit from a slightly weaker dollar at the start of the holiday-shortened week which also happens to be very quiet from a scheduled risk point of view with just PCE data scheduled for release on Good Friday.

GBP/USD Daily Chart


GBP/USD:Retail trader data shows 59.14% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.45 to 1.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall.

Read the detailed GBP/USD sentiment report to find out why recent changes in positioning has clouded the outlook for the pair from a contrarian view point.

Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.


British Pound Weekly Forecast – GBP, Gilt Yields Slide, FTSE 100 Rallies Further

GBP/USD is trading around lows last seen one month ago after the Bank of England gave a strong hint that they may start cutting interest rates in June. Going into the meeting, market forecasts pointed at the August meeting for the first UK Bank Rate cut, but this changed rapidly after the MPC meeting on Thursday. GBP/USD fell from a high of 1.2800 to around 1.2650 and this sell-off has continued as we go into the weekend. Sterling is currently trying to find a balance against the US dollar, and this will be made harder next week due to a lack of any important events or data releases, and a UK Bank Holiday on the Friday. Support is seen at 1.2591 (200day sma), 1.2547, and then the 50% Fib retracement at 1.2471.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart


IG Retail data shows 64.55% of GBP/USD traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.82 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 39.00% higher than yesterday and 21.10% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 29.34% lower than yesterday and 30.53% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall.

UK government bond yields also fell sharply post-BoE as traders began pricing in lower UK borrowing costs. The rate-sensitive UK 2-year gilt opened this week with a yield of 4.35% before drifting lower into the meeting. This move lower accelerated yesterday and today with the yield touching a low of 4.08%. The chart suggests a break below 4.07% brings a near-term target of 3.96% into focus.

UK 2-Year Gilt Yield


The FTSE 100 had a much better week as a weaker rate backdrop saw traders push the indices to a new one-year high. A weaker GBP/USD also helped fuel the move, boosting profits of FTSE 100 companies that earn US dollars abroad. With GBP/USD unlikely to push higher in the short term, the FTSE 100 will push higher. The FTSE 100 all-time high of 8044 is set to come under pressure in the weeks ahead.

FTSE 100 Daily Chart


What is your view on the British Pound, Gilt yields, and the FTSE 100

Bitcoin Price Targets 75k as Whales Invest $670M in 5-days

Bitcoin price soared to a new 2024 peak around $68,770 in the early hours of Tuesday March 5, raising bullish expectations of new BTC all-time highs above $70,000. On-chain data shows that BTC whale investors increased the buying pressure significantly in the last 5-days.

After 3-years on the back-foot, can BTC price bulls finally establish a steady support level above $70,000 territory in the days ahead?

Whale Investors Bought 10,000 BTC in First 5-days of March

The crypto market rally has intensified on Monday March 4, as BTC price came within a few hundred dollars of reaching new all-time highs. However, recent trends observed among Crypto whales suggests the milestone is only a matter of time.

The Santiment chart below shows the number of coins currently held in wallets with at least 10,000 BTC.  As seen below, this cohort of Bitcoin whales held a cumulative opening balance of 2.99 million BTC on March 1.

But interestingly, the BTC top holders have now added 10,000 BTC in the last 5-days, bringing their balances to 3 million BTC at press time on March 5.

Bitcoin (BTC) Whales Wallet Balances | Source: Santiment
Bitcoin (BTC) Whales Wallet Balances | Source: Santiment 


With BTC price currently hovering around $67,400 per coin, it implies the whale wallets have invested over $674 million in the last 5 trading days..  When the largest stakeholders within an crypto currency ecosystem make big purchases during a short period it puts upward pressure on prices.

Also, the ongoing Bitcoin rally is largely being drive by Bitcoin ETFs. Hence, the increase in the balances of these top-holder wallets signals that the ETFs buying frenzy has not cooled off despite Bitcoin price nearing all-time highs in the US markets.

And if retail investors and other strategic stakeholders take a cue from the BTC whales buying trend, BTC price could soon make the much-anticipated another major leap above $70,000.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Breaking above $70,00 0 Could Catalyze Bigger Gains

Bitcoin top holders acquiring $670 million worth of BTC over the last 5-days appears to be the major catalyst behind the latest price upswing above $68,000. If the buying trend persists as the week unfolds, BTCC bulls could target a move towards the $75,000 area.

But first, BTC has to close the trading day above $69,000. In this scenario, the bulls must withstand the profit-taking wave from final cluster of 22,760  addresses that acquired 5.1 million BTC when prices last approached $70,000.

Breaking above that final resistance, could set the stage for BTC price to advance towards $75,000 retest as predicted.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast, March, 5 2024 | In/Out of the Money data | Source: IntoTheBlock
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast, March, 5 2024 | In/Out of the Money data | Source: IntoTheBlockOn the downside, the bears could invalidate this prediction by staging another reversal below $60,000. But as observed in the past week, the looming buy-wall at the $63,000 territory offers significant short-term support for Bitcoin price.

Asia Market News: Hang Seng Index Slides on China PMIs and Policy Uncertainty

China Sees Private Sector Activity Move Sideways in February

On Tuesday, service sector PMI numbers from China drew investor interest. In February, the Caixin Services PMI slipped from 52.7 to 52.5. Economists forecast the PMI to rise to 53.4.

The figures were significant, with the National People’s Congress opening on Tuesday morning. Despite the better-than-expected Caixin Manufacturing PMI numbers, the service sector PMI raises questions about domestic demand. Importantly, weaker domestic demand warrants further measures to support the economy.

As a result of the softer-than-expected Caixin Services PMI, the Caixin Composite PMI remained unchanged at 52.5. Economists forecast the Caixin Composite PMI to increase from 52.5 to 53.1. In February, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI increased from 50.8 to 50.9.

AUD/USD Has a Mixed Reaction to the PMI Numbers from China

Before the PMI numbers from China, the AUD/USD rose to a high of $0.65113 before falling to a low of $0.65037.

However, in response to the PMI numbers, the Aussie dollar fell from $0.65096 to a low of $0.65037 before steadying.

On Tuesday morning, the AUD/USD was down 0.01% to $0.65072. The AUD/USD avoided a more marked decline as investors awaited updates from the National People’s Congress. In addition to growth forecasts, the markets expect policy measures to support the real estate sector and bolster the economy.

AUD/USD shows reaction to Caixin Services PMI
AUDUSD 3 Minute Chart 050324

Asian Equity Markets Had a Mixed Start to the Tuesday Session

The ASX 200 showed a relatively muted response to the PMI numbers from China. However, the Hang Seng Index tumbled as investors reacted to the weaker-than-expected data.

This morning, the ASX 200 was up 0.04%, while the Hang Seng Index was down 1.65% to 16,322. The Nikkei joined the broader Asian equity markets in negative territory, falling 0.53% to 39,897.

Uncertainty about stimulus measures impacted the appetite for riskier assets.

Tokyo Inflation and the Japanese Yen

Hotter-than-expected inflation numbers for Tokyo failed to sink the USD/JPY. The USD/JPY recovered from an early pullback despite rising bets on an April Bank of Japan pivot from negative rates.

The annual inflation rate for Tokyo accelerated from 1.8% to 2.6% in February. Core inflation picked up from 1.8% to 2.5%.

However, the USD/JPY was down by just 0.02% to 150.492.

USD/JPY held steady despite inflation numbers from Tokyo.
USDJPY Hourly Chart 050324

Gold Prices Bounce off Confluence Support, Markets Eye US PPI for Fed Cues

With the U.S. central bank singularly focused on restoring price stability and prioritizing this part of its mandate for now, traders should closely monitor the upcoming release of the producer price index survey on Friday. Forecasts suggest that January’s headline PPI eased to 0.6% year-on-year from 1.0% previously, and that the core gauge moderated to 1.6% from 1.8% in December.

While subdued PPI figures are likely to be bullish for gold prices, an upside surprise mirroring the results of the CPI report unveiled earlier in the week, which depicted stalling progress on disinflation, should have the opposite effect. In the latter scenario, we could see yields and the U.S. dollar rise in tandem, as markets unwind dovish interest rate bets. This should be bearish for precious metals.

Wondering how retail positioning can shape gold prices in the near term? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for—don’t miss out, download the complimentary guide now!


Gold advanced on Thursday after bouncing off confluence support at $1,990, with prices pushing towards technical resistance at $2,005. If the bulls manage to clear this barrier in the coming days, we could see a rally towards the 50-day simple moving average at $2,030. On further strength, all eyes will be on $2,065.

On the other hand, if sellers regain the upper hand and trigger a bearish reversal off current levels, the first floor to watch looms at $1,990, followed by $1,975. From here onwards, additional losses could shine a spotlight on the 200-day simple moving average near $1,965.

Feeling discouraged by trading losses? Take control and improve your strategy with our guide, “Traits of Successful Traders.” Access invaluable insights to help you avoid common trading pitfalls and costly errors.


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Simple Moving Average (SMA) vs Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

When considering the technical analysis tools to use in their charts, traders will frequently come by simple moving averages, or SMAs, and exponential moving averages, or EMAs. Both of these instruments can help market practitioners make sense of price and inform their entry and exit decisions. But how do these two indicators stack up against each other? In this piece, we’ll give the SMA vs EMA lowdown.

Simple vs Exponential Moving Average: An Overview

A Simple Moving Average (SMA) is a calculation of the average price of an asset or currency pair according to the number of periods in the range. It weights each candle and its corresponding closing price equally, with no one candle’s closing price given more significance than any other candle in the equation.

An Exponential Moving Average (EMA), however, while similar, gives more weight to the most recent candles, and so this type of moving average will react faster to the most recent trading activity. While at the outset this might appear to be the best way to go, it is important to keep in mind that whenever an indicator is ‘sped up’, it will be more likely to provide more random (false) entry signals. Most traders and trading entities such as banks and hedge funds will employ the use of SMAs.

To see how these differences appear on a chart, take a look at the daily chart of the EUR/USD posted below.

Simple (SMA) vs Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on chart

Simple vs Exponential moving average: Which is better?

When it comes to the simple and exponential moving averages and the question of which is better, you can see that in the graphic above that there appears to be little difference between the two. Normally, the EMA will change sooner than the SMA because it emphasizes the more recent activity more than the older activity. But in this case there really is not much of a difference.

However, in general, the shorter the time frame and/or the more dramatic the price action, the greater the difference that you will see between the two MAs. Therefore, shorter-term traders might find the EMA more effective in implementing their trading strategies since it is more sensitive to the recent price movement.

New traders will play with both tools to find out which one they find to be better, and use that one in their trading approach. But the reality is that it is unlikely that one moving average will give you winning results if the other does not.

If you find that a switch from a SMA to an EMA turns a losing strategy into a winning strategy, it is probably your strategy that needs changing instead of the moving average. There is just not enough difference in the two to have that much of an impact in the results of a certain strategy. The 200-day SMA is popular for identifying the trend. If the market is above the 200-day SMA, the trend is considered to be up and if the market is below the SMA, the trend is considered down.

Short-term traders have made the 10-day EMA popular based on its use by some famous traders. But the only judge to what type of moving average to use is your account balance from month to month. If it helps your trading, then keep it – and if it does not help your trading, then look to replace it.

How to Manage the Emotions of Trading

The Importance of Controlling Emotions While Trading

The importance of day trading emotional control cannot be overstated.

Imagine you’ve just taken a trade ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) with the expectation that if the reported number is higher than forecasts, you will see the price of EUR/USD increase quickly, enabling you to make a hefty short-term profit.

NFP comes, and just as you had hoped, the number beats forecasts. But for some reason, the price goes down!

You think back to all the analysis you had done, all the reasons that EUR/USD should be going up – and the more you think, the further the price falls.

As you see the red stacking up on your losing position, emotions begin to take over – this is the ‘Fight or Flight’ instinct. This impulse can often prevent us from accomplishing our goals and, for traders, this issue can be very problematic, leading to knee-jerk reactions.

Professional traders don’t want to take the chance that a rash decision will damage their account – they want to make sure that one knee-jerk reaction doesn’t ruin their entire career. It can take a lot of practice, and many trades, to learn how to minimize emotional trading.

The 3 Most Common Emotions Traders Experience

Some of the most common emotions traders experience include fear, nervousness, conviction, excitement, greed and overconfidence.


A common cause of fear is trading too big. Trading with improper size magnifies volatility unnecessarily and causes you to make mistakes you normally wouldn’t make if you weren’t under the stress of risking larger losses than normal.

Another culprit for fear (or nervousness) is you are in the ‘wrong’ trade, meaning one that doesn’t fit your trading plan.


Conviction and excitement are key emotions you’ll want to feed off, and you should feel these in every trade you enter. Conviction is the final piece of any good trade, and if you don’t have a level of excitement or conviction then there is a good chance you are not in the ‘right’ trade for you.

By ‘right’ we mean the correct trade according to your trading plan. Good trades can be losers just as bad trades can be winners. The idea is to keep yourself winning and losing on only good trades. Making sure you have conviction on a trade will help ensure this.


If you find yourself only wanting to take trades that you deem as possible big winners, you could be getting greedy. Your greed may have been the result of doing well, but if you aren’t careful you may slip and end up in a drawdown.

Always check that you are using proper trade mechanics (i.e. sticking to stops, targets, good risk/management, and good trade set-ups). Sloppy trading as a result of overconfidence can end a strong run.

Learn more about managing greed and fear while trading.

How to Control Emotions While Trading: Top Tips and Strategies

Planning out your approach is key if you want to keep negative emotions out of your trading. The adage ‘Failing to plan is planning to fail,’ can hold true in financial markets.

As traders, there isn’t just one way of being profitable. There are many strategies and approaches that can help traders accomplish their goals. But whatever is going to work for that person is often going to be a defined and systematic approach; rather than one based on ‘hunches.’

Here are five ways to feel more in control of your emotions while trading.

1. Create Personal Rules

Setting your own rules to follow when you trade can help you control your emotions. Your rules might include setting risk/reward tolerance levels for entering and exiting trades, through profit targets and/or stop losses.

2. Trade the Right Market Conditions

Staying away from market conditions which aren’t ideal is also prudent. Not trading when you aren’t ‘feeling it’ is a good idea. Don’t look to the market to make you feel better; if you aren’t up to trading the simple solution may just be to step away.

3. Lower Your Trade Size

One of the easiest ways to decrease the emotional effect of your trades is to lower your trade size.

Here’s an example. Imagine a trader opening an account with $10,000. Our trader first places a trade for a $10,000 lot on EUR/USD.

As the trade moves at $1 a pip, the trader sees moderate fluctuations in the account. An amount of $320 was put up for margin, and our trader watches their usable margin of $9,680 fluctuate by $1 per pip.

Now imagine that same trader places a trade for $300,000 in the same currency pair.

Now our trader has to put up $9,600 for margin – leaving them with only $400 in usable margin – and now the trade is moving at $30 per pip.

After the trade moves against our trader only 14 pips, the usable margin is exhausted, and the trade is closed automatically as a margin call.

The trader is forced to take a loss; they don’t even have the chance of seeing price come back and pull the trade into profitable territory.

In this case, the new trader has simply put themselves in a position in which the odds of success were simply not in their favor. Lowering the leverage can greatly help diminish the risk of such events happening in the future.

4. Establish a Trading Plan and Trading Journal

In terms of fundamental factors, planning for various outcomes in the runup to key news events may also be a strategy to bear in mind.

The results between new traders using a trading plan, and those who don’t can be substantial. Compiling a trading plan is the first step to attack the emotions of trading, but unfortunately the trading plan will not completely obviate the effects of these emotions. Keeping forex trading journals may also be helpful.

5. Relax!

If you’re relaxed and enjoy your trading, you will be better equipped to respond rationally in all market conditions.

EUR/USD rises to near 1.0950 as sentiment improves

EUR/USD is back on the bids, trading close to 1.0950 in the European trading hours on Wednesday. The pair finds support from a recovery in risk sentiment and negative US Treasury bond yields, weighing on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD trades dangerously close to 1.0920, where the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is located. Just below that level, the lower-limit of the ascending regression trend channel aligns as next support at 1.0900. A 4-hour close below the latter could attract technical sellers and open the door to an extended decline toward 1.0850 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend).

On the upside, near-term resistances are located at 1.0960-1.0970 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 100-period SMA), 1.1000 (psychological level, static level) and 1.1050 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

EUR/USD edged lower on Tuesday as the risk-averse market atmosphere helped the US Dollar (USD) gather strength against its rivals. The pair struggles to stage a rebound early Wednesday and trades below 1.0950.

The bearish opening in Wall Street provided a boost to the USD in the American session on Tuesday and caused EUR/USD to stretch lower. In the European morning, US stock index futures trade modestly lower on the day as investors grow increasingly concerned over the potential impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on energy prices and inflation. According to the CNBC News, Iran-backed Houthi militants launched the largest attack to date on commercial merchant vessels in the Red Sea late Tuesday.

The US economic docket will not feature any high-impact data releases on Wednesday and market participants will pay close attention to the 10-year US Treasury note auction. Since rising to 4.61% in October auction, the high-yield declined to 4.5% and 4.29% in November and December, respectively. In case the high-yield comes in below 4% in January auction, the USD could come under renewed bearish pressure and help EUR/USD gain traction.

Later in the American session, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams will be delivering a speech. Following the December policy meeting, Williams said that it was premature to talk about the timing of a policy pivot. In case Williams clings to the hawkish tone, the USD could hold its ground.

GBP Breaking News: CPI Miss Aligns UK With Other Economies


The British pound fell sharply this morning after the UK CPI report showed a significant decline in inflationary pressures on both headline and core metrics respectively (see economic calendar below). The impact of restrictive monetary policy measures is now showing as consumers are reluctant to spend thus decreasing demand for goods and services. Retail sales figures confirm this and should this trend continue, pound upside may be limited.



Headline inflation is now comparable with levels last seen in September 2021 and has pushed back against recent messaging that UK inflation is more willful than that of its developed counterparts including the euro area and US. According to the Office for National Statistics report, the largest downward contributions stemmed from transport, recreation and culture, and food and non-alcoholic beverages. The UK’s Chancellor Hunt went on to comment that “there is still further to go on inflation, it never declines in a straight line.” The comment was made most likely in an attempt to limit market reaction although many will dismiss his statement and focus on the actual data.

If we turn to markets expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate path, the dovish repricing has been notable with cumulative interest rate cuts anticipated around 116bps by December 2024. The first cut could take place as soon as May 2024 with the possibility of a February cut very much on the cards should this disinflationary trend continue.






Daily GBP/USD price action has been threatening bearish/negative divergence as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints lower highs. Cable bears may look to retest the 1.2500 psychological handle/200-day moving average (blue) once more considering recent news.

Key resistance levels:

  • 1.2900
  • 1.2848
  • 1.2746

Key support levels:

  • 1.2500/200-day MA
  • 1.2400/50-day MA

What is Crude Oil? A Trader’s Primer to Oil Trading


Crude oil, or petroleum, is a naturally-occurring fossil fuel and currently the world’s primary energy source. It is made from ancient organic matter and can be distilled into component fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and lubricants, each of which have a multitude of industrial applications.

The commodity is usually extracted from underground reservoirs through drilling, and the countries that produce the greatest volume of crude oil, as of 2019, are the USA, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.

To understand how crude oil relates to other energy resources and assets, as well as how to trade them, visit our Major Commodities page.


The composition of crude oil varies by source, but two types are used to benchmark global prices. They are the United States’ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and United Kingdom’s Brent crude. The differences between them are based on factors such as composition, extraction location and prices, but for more details, as well as how to trade each asset, see our WTI vs Brent comparison.


The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was established in 1960. This body sets production quotas for its members, with the aim of reducing competition and keeping prices at profitable levels. OPEC is dominated by Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (which controls the Strait of Hormuz), and the United Arab Emirates. While OPEC generally controls a large percentage of the oil supply, the US, as of 2019, is the world’s largest producer of oil.

Institutions that supply oil to the global market are made up of international oil companies, or IOCs, such as ExxonMobil, BP and Royal Dutch Shell. These are investor-owned and look to increase shareholder value through private interests. However, national oil companies, or NOCs, such as Saudi Aramco and Gazprom, are fully or majority-owned by a national government.


The history of crude oil has seen many changes since the beginning of the century, when global supply was largely controlled by OPEC, but demand was driven by the US. With OPEC calling the shots and Asian demand rising rapidly, prices went from a cost per barrel of $25 for Brent and $27 for WTI in March 2001, to $140 for both types by June 2008, representing a price bubble.

However, the last decade has seen technological advancements and deregulation facilitate increased US shale oil production, leading to shift in power from OPEC to the US. Prices fell from $112 for Brent and $105 for WTI in June 2014, to under $36 for both by January 2016. OPEC responded by colluding with several countries – including Russia – to implement ‘production quotas’ designed to stabilize prices. These brought the cost per barrel back above $70 for Brent, and $65 for WTI, by April 2018.

The below chart shows some key landmarks in the price of US Crude this century and the reasons for the swings.

WTI CRUDE OIL (2000-2019)


Crude oil prices are affected mostly by supply and demand, which in turn are influenced by factors such as outages, OPEC production cuts, seasonality, and changing consumption patterns. For more on these and why they are essential fundamental factors to understand when trading the asset, see our guide to trading crude oil.


The US Dollar and oil have historically had an inverse relationship. When USD is weak, the price of oil has traditionally been higher in dollar terms. Since the US was for long periods a net importer of oil, rising oil price has meant the US trade balance deficit has risen since more dollars are required to be sent abroad. However, some believe this relationship follows less reliable patterns in modern times.

There is a more predictable link between the Canadian Dollar and oil prices. For example, as of 2019, Canada exports some three million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day to the US, meaning a huge demand for Canadian dollars is created. If US demand rises, more oil is needed, which often means oil prices rise, and could accordingly mean a fall in USD/CAD. Conversely, if US demand falls, oil prices may fall too, meaning demand for CAD drops in turn.

Reasons to Trade Crude Oil

Oil is a dynamic, volatile and liquid market – and stands as the most traded commodity in the world. Here’s more on the benefits of engaging with this asset.

  1. The volatile nature of trading this asset makes it a favorite of swing and day traders, who react to the latest oil pricing news. While the trading can be risky, some see the oil market as an opportunity in its purest form.
  2. Crude oil is a liquid market, traded in huge volume. This means trades can be opened and closed at the price points you want and at lower trading cost.
  3. Oil can be traded as part of a hedging strategy to mitigate against the effects of the asset’s volatility.
  4. Trading oil can be part of a diversified portfolio of commodities, stocks and bonds.


We offer an in-depth guide to trading crude oil and publish daily news and analysis articles reviewing the latest crude oil prices, among other assets. You can also download our free quarterly oil forecasts which will equip you with the knowledge to make informed decisions in the oil market.