The pro-growth Australian dollar did not react to rising COVID death statistics released on Saturday by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention showing markets focus on the upcoming Australian CPI report on Wednesday and a weaker USD – see economic calendar below. Estimates point to a 0.2% increase from the prior read and could throw a spanner in the works considering the Australian economy could be pushed into a recession should the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike rates again. Taking into account softening housing prices and lower consumer demand, another hike will hurt and already wounded Australian consumer. The week rounds off with high impact U.S. data which should shift AUD/USD price movement over to dollar-based factors.
The RBA has not ruled out another interest rate hike for the February meeting as mentioned in their previous minutes and with money market (refer to table below) pricing divided between no change and a 25bps increment, Wednesday’s inflation print could result in more clarity. On a positive note for the Aussie dollar, commodity prices are projected to remain elevated throughout 2023 largely based on a China re-opening and coal exports to European countries who now look to hedge their exposure to Russian energy sources.
RBA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES
IAUD/USD DAILY CHART