Bitcoin Technical Outlook: BTC/USD Rally Stalls


Bitcoin’s technical outlook has improved in recent weeks after repeated breaks above key resistance areas and the pause in recent days appears to be a consolidation given the pace and the extent of the rise since the end of last year.

BTC/USDshort-term technical bias changed to bullishafter it broke above a crucial ceiling on the 89-day moving average (a significant barrier since mid-2022), coinciding with another barrier at the mid-December high of 18370. The subsequent break above the 200-day moving average has confirmed that the short-term downward pressure has indeed faded.

BTC/USD Daily Chart


Having said that, momentum, though still bullish, has eased a bit in recent days, as the accompanying daily chart shows. In a way, the stall in price is not surprising given the nearly 40% jump since the end of December. This comes about just as BTC/USD is approaching another cap at the August 2022 high of 25200, near the 200-week moving average (now at about 24650). As theprevious update noted, BTC/USD needs to clear the 24650-25200 area for the medium-term downward pressure to ease.

BTC/USD Weekly Chart


Already there have been tentative signs in recent months pointing to the possibility of a broader base building in cryptocurrencies.See the mid-November updatewhich maintained the short-term outlook as neutral. For the short-term outlook to stay bullish, BTC/USD needs to stay above the vital cushion zone at 18370-19650, which includes the 200-day moving average and the mid-December high.

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