EURCHF current upleg could have legs

Should the bulls feel inspired by the momentum indicators, they would like to reclaim the key 0.9650-0.9665 range that is defined by the January 15, 2015 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June 9, 2022 – September 26, 2022 downtrend respectively. Even higher, the 0.9706 area, populated by the November 14, 2022 low and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), should prove stronger to overcome. If successful, the bulls could start thinking about pushing EURCHF back inside the recent rectangle.

On the flip side, the bears look determined to push EURCHF even lower. The first obstacle appears to be the August 23, 2022 low at 0.9552 and the recent 2023 low at 0.9521. Breaking these levels would mean that the door would be wide open for a more sizeable move towards the 0.9403 area, and the chance to record a new all-time low. To sum up, the bears remain in control of the market but there is increasing bullish pressure which could quickly gain traction if the bulls stage a rally above the 0.9665 area.