Euro Update: EUR/USD Holds Early Gains After EU GDP Release, US CPI Looms

In the fourth quarter of 2022, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.1% in the Euro Area and remained stable in the EU, compared with the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2022, GDP grew by 0.3% in both the Euro Area and the EU, according to the official release published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.


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The European Commission’s Winter Economic Forecast, released yesterday, said that the EU economy is set to avoid recession but ‘headwinds persist’. The Winter interim Forecast’s projected growth for 2023 of 0.8% in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area is respectively 0.5% and 0.6% higher than in the Autumn Forecast. In further positive news, the inflation forecast was revised lower. Headline inflation is forecast to fall from 9.2% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2023 and to 2.8% in 2024 in the EU. In the euro area, it is projected to decelerate from 8.4% in 2022 to 5.6% in 2023 and to 2.5% in 2024.

The Euro kept its earlier gains against a marginally weaker US dollar with EUR/USD changing hands around 1.0760. The latest US inflation report, scheduled to be released at 13:30 GMT, will be the next driver of price action across a swathe of markets and may shed some more light on the path of US rates in the months ahead. Both annualized core and headline inflation are set to ease but any deviation from current market expectations will likely prompt a bout of volatility.


EUR/USD Daily Price Chart – February 14, 2023


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