GBP FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
Before addressing the UK CPI report, lets cast our minds back to yesterday’s jobs data that revealed higher than expected average earnings figures despite moderating employment and unemployment readings. Services sector wage growth has been a major concern for the Bank of England (BoE) as a key contributor to core inflation.
Today’s CPI remained elevated on both core and headline inflation as well as various PPI metrics that could point to sustained inflationary pressures to come. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) report, the MoM CPI read fell by 0.4% relative to the 0.6% growth in the previous month with the highest upside contributor coming from Hotels and passenger transport by air.
GBP/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR (GMT +02:00)
What does this mean for the BoE and their interest rate cycle? Looking at implied rates shown in the table below, little has changed pre and post-announcement. Markets are expecting with an almost 92% probability that the BoE will hike by 25bps in September. Taking into account the recent upside inflation report, the central bank may look to maintain this rate in November or hike further depending on incoming economic data between now and then. For now, the British pound may find some support after a recent bout of weakness against the greenback.
Later today, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD crosses will look to eurozone GDP and US building permit data respectively and should provide some short-term volatility.
BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
GBP/USD DAILY CHART
Price action on the daily cable chart naturally pushed higher on additional interest rate hikes to come. The 1.2680 support handle has been tested several times of recent but has yet to be breached. That being said, the candlestick pattern being exposed seems to echo that of a descending triangle which traditionally points to subsequent downside (bearish continuation pattern). A confirmation close below 1.2680 could spark this move.
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