GBP Forecast: UK Public Sector Debt the 4th Highest on Record for October, Pound Bid

GBP/USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

For the month of October the UK public sector (see economic calendar below) spent more than it collected resulting in the fourth highest borrowing in said month. The natural economic reaction behind elevated debt levels is to increase interest rates in order to compensate investors for the risk of default. Hence the immediate reaction by the sterling was to push marginally higher due to the traditional positive correlation between interest rates and currency strength. This being said, additional aggressive interest rate hikes are unsustainable for the UK economy in respect of recessionary fears and already elevated rates.

Later today, Fed speakers dominate the docket with the most aggressive being Mr. Bullard who will likely maintain the hawkish narrative seen over the last week or so. This could prompt further weakness in GBP/USD considering sustained concerns around the UK’s public finances.

GBP/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR

 

image1.png

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

 

GBP/USD DAILY CHART

 

image2.png

Daily GBP/USD price action has been trading within a developing triangle formation and is looking to breakout in the near term. Fundamentals suggest a push below triangle support towards the 1.1738 swing low and beyond but could be invalidated by the less likely candle close above triangle resistance.

Key resistance levels:

  • 1.2000
  • 1.1900

Key support levels:

  • 1.1738
  • 1.1500
Tags: No tags

Add a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *