GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: July to September 2022

1. Main points

  • The first quarterly estimate of UK gross domestic product (GDP) shows an estimated fall of 0.2% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022.
  • Monthly estimates published today (11 November 2022) show that GDP fell by 0.6% in September 2022 which was affected by the bank holiday for the State Funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, where some businesses closed or operated differently on this day.
  • In output terms, there was a slowing on the quarter for the services, production and construction industries; the services sector slowed to flat output on the quarter driven by a fall in consumer-facing services, while the production sector fell by 1.5% in Quarter 3 2022, including falls in all 13 sub-sectors of the manufacturing sector.
  • In expenditure terms, real household expenditure fell by 0.5% in Quarter 3 2022, while there were also large positive movements in international trade flows in the third quarter.
  • Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the implied GDP deflator rose by 5.8%, primarily reflecting higher cost pressures faced by households.
  • Estimates for September 2022 are affected by the bank holiday for the State Funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, where some businesses closed or operated differently on this day. This should be considered when interpreting the seasonally adjusted movements involving September 2022 and, to a lesser extent, the Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022 estimates.

Back to table of contents

2. Headline GDP figures

The first quarterly estimate of UK gross domestic product (GDP) shows an estimated fall of 0.2% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022 (Figure 1). This follows a rise of 0.2% in the previous quarter. The level of quarterly GDP in Quarter 3 2022 is now 0.4% below its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level (Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019). Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision, for more information please refer to our Communicating the UK economic cycle methodology.

As published today (11 November 2022) in our GDP monthly estimate, UK bulletin, GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in September 2022. It is important to note that data for September 2022 are affected by the bank holiday for the State Funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, where some businesses closed or operated differently on this day. As this is a one-off event, this impact does not get removed from our seasonally adjusted estimates. This should be considered when interpreting the seasonally adjusted movements involving September 2022 and to a lesser extent the Quarter 3 2022 estimates. For more information on our treatment of the September 2022 bank holiday within the monthly figures, please refer to our GDP monthly estimate, UK bulletin.

2022 Q32022 Q22022 Q12021 Q42021 Q32021 Q22021 Q12020 Q42020 Q32020 Q22020 Q1
080100
Index 2019 Q4 = 100
2021 Q3
? 100: 97.3

Source: Office for National Statistics – GDP first quarterly estimate

Notes:
  1. Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec).
  2. Index is referenced to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019.
Tags: No tags

Add a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *