Gold and Silver Technical Outlook: Brighter Days Ahead?

GOLD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – BULLISH

Gold’s ascent to a nine-month high is a sign that the short-term fortunes have turned brighter for the yellow metal.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

Chart Created Using TradingView

XAU/USD’s break in November above key resistance at the October high of 1729 triggered a minor double bottom (the late-2022 lows), opening the door toward 1840. Furthermore, the rise above the 200-day moving average for the first time since June is an indication that the medium-term downward pressure is fading. In this regard, the shift to a higher range of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an encouraging sign for bulls (see Daily chart).

XAU/USD Weekly Chart

From a medium-term perspective, XAU/USD’s hold above vital support on the 200-week moving average last year confirms that the broader uptrend hasn’t altered (see Weekly chart). The yellow metal remains in a broad sideway range of around 1650-2050. Initial resistance is at 1975 (the 78.6% retracement of the 2022 fall, followed by the April high of 1998. On the downside, there is plenty to support to cushion an immediate setback in the rally, starting with the 11 January low of 1866 with stronger support at the 5 January low of 1824.

SILVER TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL

While gold made a new nine-month high earlier this week, Silver’s rally has stalled in recent weeks. XAG/USD is weighed by a stiff hurdle on a downtrend line from 2021 (see Weekly chart). Despite the sharp rally since the end of 2022, the 14-week Relative Strength Index remains capped at around 60 – similar to the previous two rallies in Silver in 2021 and 2022.

XAG/USD Daily Chart

From a medium-term perspective, XAU/USD’s hold above vital support on the 200-week moving average last year confirms that the broader uptrend hasn’t altered (see Weekly chart). The yellow metal remains in a broad sideway range of around 1650-2050. Initial resistance is at 1975 (the 78.6% retracement of the 2022 fall, followed by the April high of 1998. On the downside, there is plenty to support to cushion an immediate setback in the rally, starting with the 11 January low of 1866 with stronger support at the 5 January low of 1824.