Gold Market Technical Analysis
Gold markets have been slightly positive during the early hours on Friday, as we continue to look at the $1950 level with interest. The market is currently trading between the 50-Day EMA above, and the 200-Day EMA below. This typically means that you are going to see quite a bit of volatility, and this of course is especially true when you’re talking about the gold market.
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Be careful on the negative correlation between the US dollar and gold because the US dollar of course has been very noisy. There are a lot of concerns out there, so it’s not like that negative correlation has always been a major factor. In fact, the entire 1980s had seen a strong US dollar and strong gold at the same time. That being said, recently the correlation has been very negative, so it is certainly worth paying attention to it.
If the market were to break down below the 200-Day EMA, then it’s possible that the market truly falls apart. That involves dancing around the $1900 level, which opens up a move down to the $1800 level rather quickly. On the other hand, if we were to break above the 50-Day EMA, then it’s very likely that we eventually test the psychologically important $2000 level, an area that one would have to assume that there are a lot of options expiring at various time frames in that general region. Breaking above the $2000 level opens up the possibility of a move to the $2050 level and beyond.
Ultimately, this is a market that has been very choppy, and somewhat sideways, albeit with a very slight tilt to the upside. With this, I think that the market does have a real opportunity to continue to go higher over the longer-term, but it is not going to be an easy move. It will take a lot of patience to realize gains in this market, although it does look like we are at least trying to get back to the upswing currently. With this, I am mildly optimistic but also recognize that gold has a lot of work ahead of itself.
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