Gold Market Technical Analysis
Gold markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we have continued the bounce from the 200-Day EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to go much higher, but whether or not it happens right away is a completely different question altogether. When I look at this chart, it’s obvious to me that we have a potential recovery just waiting to happen and you could make an argument that we have just found a bit of a “double bottom.”
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The 200-Day EMA is quite often widely followed as a major trend indicator, but at this point in time it also ties in quite nicely with the previous support level. With that being the case, the market is going to continue to be very noisy, but at this point in time it’s going to come down to the US dollar and probably whatever happens during the Jackson Hole symposium.
After all, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of questions asked of the interest rate policy coming out of central banks, so it’ll be interesting to see how that comes into play when it comes to the gold market. After all, the higher interest rates mean that gold suffers a bit, but if we start to see signs that the interest rates out there start to drop, that will most certainly drive gold higher in and of itself. That being said, there is also the negative correlation to the US dollar, and the fact that Christine Legarde and Jerome Powell are speaking on Friday almost certainly will bring a lot of volatility into this market.
As long as we can stay above the $1900 level, I don’t have any interest in trying to short this market, and therefore I think it’s probably a move toward the $2000 level as a potential outcome. After all, that would just be a certain amount of consolidation more than anything else, and it would not take a lot to make that happen. However, if we were to break down below the $1900 level, then it opens up a potential move toward the $1800 level.
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