Gold (XAU/USD) FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
Gold prices trickled lower in Asian trade as acceptance above the $2000 handle remains elusive. Overnight we saw some dollar strength and modestly better sentiment allowing an ease in safe haven demand.
Friday’s concerns around Deutsche Bank failed to inspire a sustained break and acceptance above the $2000 handle. The Asian session also brought news about the SVB bank, as it was finally acquired by First Citizens Bank who will receive a line of credit from FDIC in the case of liquidity issues. The precious metal however, remains delicately poised as regional banks in the US remain on edge amid undercapitalization concerns which could rear its ugly head.
The weekend also brought geopolitical concerns back into focus as Russian President Vladimir Putin stated his intentions to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The statement was met with a stern reply from NATO officials who called Putin’s comments dangerous and irresponsible. The manner in which markets digest these developments moving forward and whether we see signs of escalation may be a further driver of gold prices moving forward.
We do not have a lot in the way of data for the first half of the week with most significant US releases coming later in the week. We have CB Consumer Confidence, GDP Growth Rate and of course the Feds preferred gauge of inflation the Core PCE data to come.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS
Gold has been a winner of late, however we could possibly see wild swings in prices moving forward given the host of factors at play. As mentioned above changes in the geopolitical landscape and a return of bank sector fears could push gold prices back toward the $2000 level. Alternatively improving sentiment may result in continued downside for the precious metal with a short-term view likely to be more suited to the current environment.
The continued rejection of the $2000 level remains pivotal for gold with immediate support resting at the $1960 handle. A break below opens up a retest of the $1934 support area. On the upside we do need a daily candle close above the $2000 level for a continuation of the bullish momentum in the precious metal.