Gold Prices at Risk Heading into US Consumer Confidence Data, Death Cross Eyed

Gold prices aimed cautiously higher on Monday after disappointing US durable goods orders data dented the US Dollar. Front-end Treasury yields aimed lower, hinting that markets cut back on hawkish Federal Reserve policy expectations. The resulting dip in the US Dollar and Treasury yields worked together to bolster anti-fiat gold prices.

This dynamic somewhat reversed course during Tuesday’s Asia-Pacific trading session. While the Nikkei 225 gapped higher at the open, sentiment struggled to continue the cautiously rosy lead from the Wall Street trading session. Japan’s benchmark stock index soon erased most gains heading into the close. The resulting risk aversion boosted the US Dollar, sending gold back lower.

Over the remaining 24 hours, the yellow metal will be eyeing the next round of US Conference Board Consumer Confidence data. A rise to 108.5 for February is expected, which is compared to last month’s 107.1 outcome. Broadly speaking, consumer confidence has been aiming cautiously higher since July 2022, reversing a year-long downtrend from the summer of 2021.

Looking at the Citi Economic Surprise Index tracking the US, the indicator is at 40.40. That represents the highest level since April 2022. Recent gains suggest that economists are being too pessimistic in offering data projections. This is opening the door to an upside surprise in consumer confidence later today. As such, gold is looking vulnerable if this outcome continues supporting a hawkish Fed.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

On the daily chart, gold’s near-term trajectory remains biased lower. Recently, a bearish Death Cross formed between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), offering a downside trajectory. Immediate support is the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement level at 1787.33. Meanwhile, resistance is at the 38.2% point at 1828.01. In the event of a broader turn higher, the SMAs could kick in as resistance, maintaining the downward outlook.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

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