US Business Cycle Indicators, at the Beginning of August

Consensus July employment growth at 200K, June GDPNow rises 0.5% m/m, and GDPNow at 3.9% q/q AR. chart Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), 2023Q2 is GDPNow of 8/1, all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 advance release via FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (8/1/2023