US Dollar Vulnerable Ahead of BoE Rate Call and ECB Speakers. Higher EUR/USD?

The US Dollar slid lower overnight after headline CPI printed at 4.9% year-on-year to the end of April instead of the 5.0% estimated and prior. Core CPI was in line with forecasts for the same period, coming in at 5.6%.

Rates markets have doubled down on bets that the Fed will be cutting its target rate by the end of the year. Futures and overnight index swaps (OIS) markets see almost 25 basis points (bp) shaved off monetary policy at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Treasury yields are lower across the yield curve from this time yesterday with the benchmark 2-year bond near 3.90%. It should be noted though that yields at all tenors are still comfortably above where they were in March post the collapse of SVB Financial.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke at the G-7 Finance Ministers meeting in Tokyo today. She reiterated many of her recent comments around the importance of solving the US debt ceiling issue,

China’s inflation read was also soft today with headline CPI coming in at 0.1% year-over-year to the end of April against the estimate of 0.3% in March’s print of 0.7%. PPI came in at -3.6%, instead of the -3.3% forecast and -2.5% previously.

Chinese government bond (CGB) yields dipped with the 10-year note submerging below 2.7% today for the first time since November last year. There are also market hopes for more dovishness from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the back of easing price pressures.

GBP/USD continues to linger near the 12-month high of 1.2680 seen yesterday with the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision today. A Bloomberg survey of economists is forecasting a 25 bp lift to 4.50%.

Japan’s current account surplus was abeat at ¥ 2,947 billion for March rather than the ¥ 2,278 anticipated. USD/JPY is little changed neat 134.25 at the time of going to print.

Gold and crude oil have eked out small gains so far today on the weak USD and APAC equity indices have seen a fairly stagnant day of trading.

A plethora of ECB speakers will be crossing the wires as well as the Fed’s Kashkari and Waller.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD appears to be precariously placed just above several potential support levels.

The 1.0910 – 1.0945 area has many breakpoints and prior lows as well as an ascending trend line. A clean break below this zone might see bearish momentum unfold.

If a sharp move below there were to evolve soon, the price would also go below the lower band of the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) based Bollinger Band. This might indicate a volatility breakout.

On the topside, resistance might be offered at the previous peaks in the 1.1075 – 1.1100 area.

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