US Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Expectations Fall

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of January 9

Consumer Price Index, December (Thursday)

  • Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.2%
  • Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: –0.1%/+0.3%
  • Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: –0.1%/+0.3%
  • Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +7.1%/+6.0%
  • Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +6.5%/+5.7%
  • Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +6.5%/+5.7%

Headline consumer prices fell by 0.1 percent in December, and year-over-year consumer inflation moderated as well. This report indicated that tight monetary policy is working to help combat inflation; however, there is still work to be done to get price growth back to the Fed’s target range.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary January (Friday)

  • Expected/prior month sentiment: 60.7/59.7
  • Actual sentiment: 64.6

Consumer sentiment improved more than expected to start January, supported by falling short-term inflation expectations that came in below estimates. The report showed that one-year consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.4 percent in December to 4 percent in January against calls for a more modest drop to 4.3 percent.

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