US Economic Update: 2022 Q4 GDP looks solid but weakness emerging

In our December update we noted that early data for Q4 was looking positive but that net trade was looming (again) as a large swing factor, this time in a negative direction. However, a plunge in goods imports in November (-7.4% m/m), even after allowing for another large fall in exports (-2.6%m/m), suggests that the net trade detraction will be much smaller than previously expected. As a result, we have substantially revised up our estimate for Q4 GDP to 2.7% q/q annualised (1.1% q/q previously). The BEA also revised up its estimate of growth in Q3 from 2.9% q/q to 3.2% q/q annualised.

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