Week ahead: The Big three – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offer a sneak peek of the top three market-moving events due on the cards next week.

Key quotes

“US CPI: Core prices likely cooled off modestly in March, with the index still rising a strong 0.4% m/m, as we look for recent relief from goods deflation to turn into inflation this month. Shelter prices likely remained the key wildcard, while slowing gas prices and softer food-price gains will likely dent non-core inflation. Our m/m forecasts imply 5.1%/5.6% y/y for total/core prices.”

“BoC rate decision: We look for the BoC to hold at 4.50% in what should be an easy decision, with recent banking stress removing some pressure after the rebound in Q1 GDP. The more interesting element will be how the Bank incorporates banking stress in the April MPR. Balancing stronger growth and a more ominous outlook should result in a mixed tone, but one that supports the conditional pause.”

“FOMC Minutes: The rate hike at the March FOMC meeting was widely viewed as dovish. The distribution of the March dot plot for 2023, however, suggested a more hawkish sentiment across the FOMC. With banking stress now appearing to be somewhat contained, the minutes for this meeting might emphasize this hawkish sentiment given continued elevated inflationary pressures.”

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