You Think The US Labor Market Is Hot? Think Again

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The Labor Market Holds The Key

Especially at turning points, looking beyond the main headlines in macro data can make the difference in understanding where do we really stand in the macro cycle.

The last US payroll report was tagged as very strong – but if you look deeper you realize the current state of the US labor market is far from ‘‘hot’’.

Job creation is clearly trending down, alternative real-time and forward-looking labor market indicators point to a sharp deterioration ahead and statistical inconsistencies are artificially boosting non-farm payrolls to the point the US government reached out to ask if I could help them look into it.

The labor market holds the key to the Fed reaction function in 2023, and hence it will be a crucial driver of asset classes performance – calling it right can make the difference for portfolios next year.

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