Euro makes a date with year-to-date highs on the back of confidence-boosting bank earnings

The Euro (EUR) almost touches year-to-date highs above 1.1000 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European session, on Tuesday. The single currency is supported by confidence-boosting Eurozone bank earnings, which suggest the sector has weathered the March crisis better than expected. Hawkish comments from rate-setters at the European Central Bank (ECB) further aid the Euro, as expectation of higher interest rates would lift capital inflows into Europe. From a technical perspective, despite an intraday pullback, the overall trend is up, with the probabilities favoring longs over shorts.

EUR/USD technical analysis: Nearing year-to-date highs

EUR/USD breaks out of a right-angled triangle (more clearly seen on the 4-hour chart) and unfolds another leg higher, in line with the broader medium-term uptrend that began over eight months ago. The pair is fast approaching the year-to-date highs at 1.1075. The odds favor a continuation of the dominant Euro bullish trend.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

A decisive break above 1.1075, which was touched on April 14, would confirm a continuation of the Euro’s uptrend to the next key resistance level at around 1.1190, where the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) sits.

For the sake of clarity, the definition of a ‘decisive break’ either includes a ‘breakout candle’ – a long green bullish daily candle that extends above the 1.1075 highs and closes near its high, or three smaller bullish green candles in a row that break above the highs.

Alternatively, a break and daily close below the key lower high at 1.0830 would bring into doubt the validity of the uptrend and could see losses extend down to a confluence of support at 1.0775-1.0800, marking a possible reversal of the dominant trend.