Monthly Archives: March 2024

The GBP/USD braces for impacts from domestic fronts with the CBI Realized Sales and remarks from MPC Member Mann at the Royal Economic Society Conference in Belfast, offering fresh insights into the UK’s economic outlook.

Dollar IndexThe Dollar Index experienced a slight decline, dipping by 0.07% to 104.359, hinting at momentary bearish pressure within a largely bullish long-term trend. Today’s key pivot point stands at 104.492, marking the threshold between potential upward momentum and continued bearish trend.

With immediate resistance levels poised at 104.736, 104.978, and peaking at 105.277, the path for a bullish resurgence is clear, should the index cross above the pivot. Conversely, support levels at 104.184, 103.985, and 103.678 offer a safeguard against further declines.

The proximity of both the 50 and 200-Day EMAs below the current price strengthens the long-term bullish outlook, albeit with a cautious note for potential shifts above or below the pivotal 104.492 mark.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price

On the downside, immediate support is identified at 1.0788, followed by 1.0766 and 1.0744, offering a safety net against potential declines. The near convergence of the 50 and 200-Day EMAs around 1.0867 and 1.0861 respectively, indicates a tightly contested market, with the pair’s direction likely hinging on its ability to breach the pivotal 1.0833 mark.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

Key Week Ahead with GDP, PCE Index, and Earnings in Focus

This week, markets brace for a data surge, headlined by the PCE Price Index and GDP’s third estimate. Key earnings from GameStop, McCormick, and Walgreens Boots Alliance are also on deck. Investors are watching new home sales and durable goods orders for economic health indicators, while consumer confidence and manufacturing indices provide further insights. Personal income and spending figures will offer clues about consumer behavior, setting the stage for a pivotal week in financial markets, ending with Good Friday’s market closure.

Stock Futures Ease Amid Ongoing Rally; Market Optimism Persists

Stock futures saw a slight retreat Monday morning, following a period of sustained gains in major U.S. stock indexes. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have recently achieved new all-time closing highs, with the Dow nearing the 40,000 mark. This rally has been fueled by the Federal Reserve’s dovish rate policy and a strong interest in tech stocks, particularly those driven by AI advancements. Investor sentiment remains high, reflecting confidence in the market despite concerns over an overextended rally and interest rate trends. (CNBC)

JPMorgan Warns Bitcoin Still Overvalued Despite Recent Decline

JPMorgan’s latest analysis reveals that Bitcoin remains overbought, despite its recent price drop. The bank predicts continued selling pressure as the halving event nears, citing overoptimistic positioning. Metrics like futures positions and bitcoin futures’ premium over spot prices support this view. The report also highlights a decrease in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, challenging earlier predictions of a year-end rally. The analysis comes amid CEO Jamie Dimon’s ongoing skepticism about Bitcoin, contrasting with the market’s previous high expectations for post-halving gains. (Bitcoin.com)

Dollar Holds Firm, Yen Near Decade Low Amid Currency Intervention Threat

The dollar remains strong against a backdrop of global rate shifts, with the yen struggling near a 32-year low despite Japan’s potential intervention. Japanese authorities warn the yen’s weakness doesn’t match economic fundamentals, hinting at possible action to support it. Meanwhile, expectations that the Fed will maintain higher rates contrast with potential ECB and BoE cuts, pressuring the euro and sterling. The dollar index saw a modest rise, as central banks globally navigate divergent monetary policies amid fluctuating economic data. (Reuters)

Oil Edges Up Amid Supply Woes, Gold Climbs on Rate Cut Hopes

Oil prices recorded a slight rise at the start of the week, driven by intensifying geopolitical tensions and a decrease in the U.S. oil rig count, hinting at potential supply constraints. Concurrently, gold prices experienced an increase, buoyed by the prospects of upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts and a softer dollar. These movements reflect the market’s response to unfolding international events and central bank policy speculations, influencing both commodities’ trajectories in global markets.

Litecoin (LTC) price opened trading on Monday, March 25 just below $90 mark, having maintained an upward momentum since the recent bullish reversal on March 20. On-chain data shows that while new entrants are trooping in to the Litecoin ecosystem, speculative traders are also placing bullish bets ahead of the forthcoming Bitcoin halving.

Can Litecoin price break above $100 before the halving date?

Litecoin pulls 90,000 new users ahead of Bitcoin Halving

Bitcoin upcoming 4th halving event scheduled for April 20 has dominated media headlines in recent weeks, as strategic investors move to front-run possible price impact.  This has triggered a paradigm shift in investment patterns across the crypto markets, predominantly on rival Proof of Work (PoW) projects.

Currently trading at $89, LTC price has been limited to only 12% gains for the month, after multiple unsuccessful attempts at establishing a steady support base above the $90.

However, on-chain data trends now show a flurry of new users have trooped into the Litecoin network ahead of the Bitcoin halving, a move that could trigger a parabolic price breakout.

Santiment’s Total Amount of Holders chart below tracks the net-growth in the number of new funded wallets created on a cryptocurrency network. It essentially measures growth in user acquisition and active investor base.

Litecoin (LTC) Total Amount of Holders vs. Price | March 2024 | Source: SantimentThe number of active Litecoin holders stood at 7.92 million at the close of Feb 29. But as of March 25, that figure has balooned to $8.01 million unique addresses holding LTC.

This means means that the number of LTC holder wallets have increased by 90,000 addresses in the March 2024.

An increase in funded wallets not only means increase in number of users, but it is also a bullish indicator of fresh capital flowing into the ecosystem.

It is widely speculated that when rewards for Bitcoin mining get halved on April 20, many unprofitable miners could turn towards other PoW networks.

Hence, it appears that strategic investors have been aping-in to other prominent PoW networks like Litecoin in hopes that the forthcoming Bitcoin halving event will impact their prices and network sophistication. positively.

Litecoin (LTC) Price Forecast: Rocky road to $100

Given that LTC price action has been closely and positively correlated to the changes in the number of holders, it is highly likely that a persistent increase in funded wallets could drive Litecoin price towards $100 in the days ahead.

However, in the near-term the bulls face major resistance at the $95 area. As shown in the Coinglass chart below, $6.4 million leveraged SHORT LTC positions are due to be liquidated if Litecoin price breaks above $94.

Given that this is a high-liquidity price range, a strategic LONG traders could attempt to execute take-profit orders at minimal slippage, while SHORT traders looking to mitigate losses could also simultaneously deploy stop-loss orders.

This key factors could trigger another Litecoin price retracement from the $94 area in the week ahead.

But considering the fresh capital inflows from new entrants trooping in ahead of the Bitcoin halving, Litecoin price has a fair change of scaling that sell-wall and advancing toward $100 as predicted.

Litecoin LTC price forecast, March 2024 | Source: CoinglassOn the flipside, the broader crypto market takes another dip this week, Litecoin price stands the risk  of a reversal below $80. However, the chart above illustrates that the bulls could mount a major support buy-wall at $87 price mark to avoid liquidations worth over $7.2 million.

Dogecoin (DOGE) price surged above $0.17 on Monday, March 25, up 58% within the monthly time frame. On-chain data shows that thousands of new users trooping into the Dogecoin network following Elon Musk’s recent payments licensing move.

With SHORT traders desperate to avert over $20 million in losses can DOGE price maintain an upward momentum in the week ahead?

10,000 New Users Joined Dogecoin Ecoystem in the last 3-days

After struggling for demand in Mid-March, Dogecoin price swung into an upward trajectory on March 20, as markets reacted to Elon Musk Twitter/X Payments LLC arm announced the acquisition of operational licenses in 3 US states.

DOGE price bounced 30% from $0.12 to $0.16 within the 24 hours of the news, as the Dogecoin ecosystem reacted positively to yet another bullish Elon Musk  narrative.

However, at press time on March 25, Dogecoin has now stretched its gains even further above $0.17 territory, sparking hopes of a prolonged price uptrend.

On-chain data shows that beyond the Dogecoin existing holders’ positive reactions, new entrant trooping into the ecosystem are adding more depth and intensity to the market demand.

Santiment’s Total Amount of Holders chart below tracks the net-growth in the number of new funded wallets created on a blockchain network. It serves as proxy for measuring growth in user acquisition and active investor base.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Total Amount of Holders vs. Price | March 2024 | Source: SantimentDogecoin funded wallets have increased by 70,000 addresses in the March 2024 hitting 6.58 million active wallets as of March 25. Notably, 10,000 of those have funded their wallets in the last 4-days,  in aftermath of X Payments’ license acquisition.

An increase in funded wallets not only means increase in number of users, but it is also a bullish indicator of fresh capital flowing into the ecosystem.

It appears that X Payments’ license acquisition has stirred up optimism that Dogecoin could achieve global adoption surge if Elon Musk’s fulfills the long-term proposition to integrate DOGE into Twitter/X.

Historical, also shows that DOGE price action has been closely and positively  correlated to the changes in the number of funded wallets. Hence, strategic traders will keep an eye on the future developments surrounding this event.

Dogecoin (DOGE) price forecast: SHORT Traders to Lose $20M if DOGE breaks above $0.20

In the near-term, if the Dogecoin network continues to adds to its 70,000 newly-funded wallets, DOGE price could head toward the $.20 target in the week ahead.

However, Coinglass Liquidation map shows that the bears could mount a significant sell-wall at the $0.18 territory.

As seen below, SHORT traders currently have over $20 million leveraged futures contracts due to be liquidated if Dogecoin price surges above $0.18.

To avoid booking such large losses, the bears could activate tight stop-loss orders in the coming days. The sell pressure could in advertently slow down the DOGE price ascent.

But if the new entrant keep bringing in fresh capital as observed above, Dogecoin could attract sufficient demand to scale the looming sell-wall at $0.18, and potentially drive the rally above $0.20 as predicted.

SEC vs. Ripple Case Takes Center Stage

The investor focus will return to the ongoing SEC v Ripple case this week. The SEC will release a redacted version of the remedy-related opening brief on Tuesday, March 26. Investors expect the SEC to argue for a punitive disgorgement for selling unregistered securities to institutional investors.

In July 2023, Judge Torres ruled that Ripple breached Section 5 of the 1933 Securities Act for selling unregistered XRP to institutional investors.

The SEC will release the redacted opening brief amidst heightened scrutiny. Significantly, the Office of Inspector General (OIG) is close to concluding an investigation into alleged crypto conflicts of interest within the SEC.

Evidence of financial conflicts of interest could impact SEC plans to appeal a second ruling from July 2023. Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.

The investigation relates to former SEC director William Hinman.

Hinman allegedly received millions of dollars from his previous employer, Simpson Thacher, while guiding crypto regs at the SEC. Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher after leaving the SEC. In a highly publicized 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities. Simpson Thacher is in a group that promotes Enterprise Ethereum.

On Tuesday, Empower Oversight will further scrutinize the SEC vs. Ripple case. Founder Jason Foster and President Tristan Leavitt will discuss the IG Report and SEC lawsuits in a livecast on CryptoLaw.

Empower Oversight vs. the SEC

On March 18, Empower Oversight sued the SEC for more crypto conflict-related documents. Empower Oversight announced the lawsuit, saying,

“By slow walking their response to our FOIA request, the SEC is stonewalling Empower’s oversight into SEC officials with conflicts of interest on cryptocurrency issues. The public has a right to see all documents that relate to how these public officials violated ethics guidance and how the agency failed to hold them accountable.”

On March 14, Empower Oversight requested records relating to possible ethical violations. The March 14 request expanded the investigation to include documents relating to former SEC Chair Jay Clayton.

Former Chair Clayton reportedly moved to One River Asset Management after leaving the SEC. One River Asset Management is a hedge fund focused on BTC and ETH. The letter to the FOIA highlighted that Clayton stated bitcoin is not a security and affirmed Hinman’s speech about ETH,

Links between Clayton and crypto-related firms go back to 2022. Empower Oversight noted that Clayton became an advisor to Electric Capital in 2022. Electric Capital is a Consensys investor. Consensys is a developer of Ether.

The SEC filed charges against Ripple Labs on Chair Clayton’s last day at the SEC.

XRP Price Action

XRPUSD 250324 Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

XRP hovered above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

An XRP move through the $0.6609 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the $0.70 handle. A breakout from the $0.70 handle could signal a move to the $0.7467 resistance level.

SEC-related news and SEC vs. Ripple case-related chatter need consideration.

Conversely, a drop below the 50-day EMA could give the bears a run at the 200-day EMA and the $0.5740 support level. Buying pressure could intensify at the $0.5740 support level. The 200-day EMA is confluent with the support level.

The 14-day RSI reading, 52.23, indicates an XRP move to the $0.70 handle before entering overbought territory.

XRPUSD 250324 Daily Chart

4-Hourly Chart

On the 4-hourly, XRP sat above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMAs affirmed the bullish price signals.

An XRP return to the $0.65 handle would support a move to the $0.6609 resistance level.

However, a drop below the 50-day EMA could signal a drop below the $0.60 handle. A fall through the $0.60 handle could give the bears a run at the $0.5740 support level.

The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 56.14, suggests an XRP break above the $0.6609 resistance level before entering overbought territory.

XRPUSD 250324 4-Hourly Chart